Sharpening the Knife: Can Open Source Hardware Scale Up?

First of all, I’m a big fan of the _idea_ of open source hardware (OSH).  (For reference, an excellent compendium of the idea has been growing here at the P2P Foundation wiki.) The notion of a global OS design database, a distributed network of fablabs, and a market driven not by the price signal but by collaborative communication, is very alluring — especially to nerds.

But I have lingering doubts…Certainly the movement is increasingly technologically feasible, and likely to create some sort of fringe guild ecology over the next 10 years.  But from an economic and social viewpoint, much remains to be sorted out in any rigorous way.   I should clarify here that my goal is to critique the OSH movement’s ability to have a meaningful impact for the welfare of the world’s poorest, or to meaningfully change the ecological footprint of the global economy.  Key to this dual goal are speed and scale: the OSH economy must grow at least as fast as the ‘traditional’ economy, and preferably should outpace it by an order of magnitude.   In other words, how can the OSH community lay plans to grow revenues by 25% per year for the next 10 years?

And in sorting out whether OSH has legs, we need to think about whether it will be able to harness the three forces that drive successful product/service growth: a business model that keeps investment dollars coming in, keeps producers gainfully employed, and keeps consumers happy.  I’ll look into possible business models for OSH in a later post.